Sensitivity Analysis

Last updated: July 21, 2025

Sensitivity analysis helps you answer a critical question:
Which assumptions have the biggest impact on my model’s outcomes?

By testing how changes in a single input—like CapEx or electricity price—affect key outputs such as IRR or LCOP, you can identify which variables drive the most risk or opportunity in your project economics.

At Aire, sensitivity analysis follows a univariate (one-at-a-time) approach. We vary one input across a defined range while holding others constant, to isolate its influence on outputs.

Visual Tools

To make results fast to interpret and easy to share, Aire includes three built-in visualizations:

1. Tornado Diagram

Compare the impact of each input side-by-side. The longer the bar, the bigger the effect on your chosen output. Sorted top-down by magnitude, the chart resembles a tornado.

Use it to: Quickly spot the highest-sensitivity assumptions.

2. Data Table

Each row shows an input, its range, and the resulting output values.

Use it to: Communicate sensitivity in a formal or tabular format.

3. Spider Diagram

Multiple input lines plotted on one chart, showing how the output metric responds to varying inputs. Steeper slopes indicate greater sensitivity.

Use it to: Spot nonlinear effects and compare variable influence visually.

Why Use Sensitivity Analysis?

  • Reveal risk and upside
    Understand where your model is most exposed—and where there’s opportunity to optimize.

  • Boost stakeholder confidence
    Demonstrate robustness and transparency to investors and partners.

  • Focus effort where it counts
    Prioritize engineering, procurement, or commercial work based on what actually moves the needle.

How to Use Sensitivity Analysis in the Aire Platform

Aire’s Sensitivity Analysis tool lets you explore how uncertainty in key input variables affects critical output metrics. It uses a one-at-a-time (univariate) method: each input is varied across a defined range while others are held constant.

Here’s how to run a sensitivity analysis step-by-step:

1. Open the Sensitivity Panel

  • Open your project and navigate to the Sensitivity tab from the left-hand menu.

2. Select a Baseline Scenario

  • Choose a Scenario to serve as the baseline for your analysis.

  • This scenario provides the starting values for all inputs you plan to vary.

3. Add Input Variables to Test

  • Click + Add Variable to select the inputs you want to analyze (e.g., CapEx, Electricity Price, O&M).

  • For each variable:

  • Set a range: either as a % delta or as absolute values.

    1. If % Delta is selected, choose whether to apply a uniform range (same percentage for both minimum and maximum limits) or a custom range (different percentages for the minimum and maximum limits)

    2. Choose the number of steps to test across that range (e.g. 5 steps = 5 test points).

4. Select the Output Metric

  • At the bottom of the panel, choose up to 5 output KPI to track (e.g., IRR, LCOP, NPV).

5. Run the Analysis

  • Click Run. Aire will simulate each variation and calculate the effect on the selected output, one input at a time.

6. View and Interpret Results

You’ll see three visualizations:

  • Tornado Chart: Compares impact magnitude across variables.

  • Data Table: Lists each input value and its corresponding output.

  • Spider Plot: Shows how the output changes across the full range for each input, useful for spotting nonlinear behavior.