Scenario Analysis

Last updated: July 21, 2025

Scenario Analysis helps you explore plausible future states or strategic choices, capturing how a project might realistically evolve under different conditions.

Each scenario isolates a set of critical factors, defines hypothetical assumptions, and evaluates their potential impact on project outcomes.

By running scenario analysis, you can:

  • Understand how key drivers interact—revealing risks and trade-offs

  • Test the resilience of your project under downside, upside, or policy-driven futures

  • Build clear, defensible narratives for stakeholders, investors, or internal decision-making

Scenarios in Aire Labs

Scenarios in Aire are built using two core modelling concepts that are central to how our platform works:

  • Blocks are modular groupings of related terms—such as Revenue or System Design—that define the structure of your project model.

  • Cases are named variations of a block or term that represent different assumptions or configurations (e.g., a Low Price case for the Revenue block or a Behind-the-Meter case for the System Design block).

The Scenario Explorer loads a copy of the Base Case for each Block. You then select which Blocks you want to reconfigure and choose the specific cases you want to apply for those Blocks. Each scenario is defined by this set of case selections—representing a complete, alternate view of your project without altering the underlying model.

In a full project, every Scenario includes a selected Case for each Block, ensuring a complete and consistent model configuration for analysis.

How to Create Scenarios

1. Open the Scenarios Panel

  • Navigate to the Scenarios tab from the left-hand menu within your project.

2. Create a New Scenario

  • Click + New Scenario.

  • Give your scenario a clear name and an optional description to explain its purpose or context.

3. Start from the Base Case

  • When a new Scenario is created, each Block is pre-loaded with the Base Case selected.

  • This serves as your starting configuration.

4. Select Blocks to Reconfigure

  • Choose the Blocks where assumptions differ in your scenario (e.g., Revenue, System Design).

5. Select Alternate Cases for Each Block

  • For each selected Block, choose an alternate Case that represents a different assumption or configuration
    (e.g., Low Price case for revenue, Behind-The-Meter case for system design)

6. Choose Output Metrics to Track

  • At the bottom of the panel, select the output KPIs you want to evaluate for this Scenario (e.g., IRR, NPV, DSCR, LCOX).

7. Save and Compare

  • Save your Scenario and view side-by-side comparisons across multiple Scenarios using the selected metrics.

  • Use these insights to evaluate trade-offs, highlight risks, or support strategic decisions.

8. Explore using the Scenario Sandbox when Comparing Scenarios

  • For each Block you’ve selected for reconfiguration, use sliders or input fields to experiment with custom values

  • This lets you override specific terms within a Block and instantly see how adjustments affect Scenario performance—without needing to create a new Case.